The official language of the conference is English.

Programme history




Wednesday, December 2, 2009


from 14:00      Hotel registration


18:00 – 19:00 Conference registration


19:00 – 21:00  Dinner and Get Together Party



Thursday, December 3, 2009


8:00 – 9:00      Breakfast


9:45 – 10:00    Opening of the conference – Władysław Welfe


10:00 – 11:00   Invited Session I

                         Chair: Aleksander Welfe


P.A.V.B. SWAMY, George S. TAVLAS, Stephen G. HALL and George HONDROYIANNIS, Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Model Misspecification and Measurement Error


11:00 – 12:30  Session 1A: Exchange Rate and Inflation Modelling

                        Chair: Peter Winker


Agata KLIBER, Impact of Rating Agency Announcements on the Common Volatility of Hungarian Forint and Polish Zloty


Piotr KĘBŁOWSKI, Aleksander WELFE, The Risk-Driven Approach to the Equilibrium Exchange Rate


Robert KELM, Inflationary Consequences of Globalization in Poland in Pre-ERM2 Period



12:30 – 13:00  Coffee break


13:00 – 14:00  Session 2A: GARCH Models

                        Chair: Rafał Weron


Barbara BĘDOWSKA-SÓJKA, Interdependence between Polish, French and German Stock Markets – Evidence from Intraday Data


Małgorzata DOMAN, Modelling Volatility and Conditional Correlations: Do Holidays Matter?


13:00 – 14:00  COMISEF Session 2B: Expectations and Learning Models

                        Chair: Anna Pajor


Victor BYSTROV, Anna STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, Aleksander WELFE, Adaptive Learning and Inflationary Expectations: Polish Manufacturers


Tikesh RAMTOHUL, Dietmar MARINGER, A Regime-Switching Model of Recurrent Reinforcement Learning for Automated Trading



14:00 – 15:00  Lunch



15:00 – 16:00  Session 3A: Vector Error Correction Models - Applications

                        Chair: Jacek Kotłowski


Aleksandra ROGUT, Sylwia ROSZKOWSKA, Wages, Prices and Unemployment in Poland


Magdalena ZACHŁOD-JELEC, Interrelations between Consumption and Wealth in Poland


16:00 – 17:00  Session 4A: DSGE Models

                        Chair: Jerzy Marzec


Michał BRZOZA-BRZEZINA, Krzysztof MAKARSKI, The Credit Crunch in a Small Open Economy


Andrzej TORÓJ, Adjustment Capacity in a Monetary Union: A DSGE Evaluation of Poland and Slovakia


16:00 – 17:00  AMFET Session 4B: Modelling Economies in Transition I

                        Chair: Michal Olexa


Waldemar FLORCZAK, Macrodeterminants of Crime in Poland. An Economic Approach


17:00 – 17:30  Coffee break


17:30 – 18:30  Session 5A: Mathematical Economics - Methodological Issues

                        Chair: Marek Gruszczyński


Robert KRUSZEWSKI, Chaotic Dynamics of a Hicks-type Model with Expectations. Further Results


Piotr MAĆKOWIAK, On Equivalence of Brouwer's Fixed Point Theorem and Existence of Economic Equilibrium


17:30 – 18:30  COMISEF Session 5B: Macroeconomic Policy Modelling

                        Chair: Enrico Schumann


Jan GADOMSKI, Zbigniew NAHORSKI, Growth, Emission Limit and Technological Change in the Three-Sector Growth Model


Reinhard NECK, Dmitri BLUESCHKE, Viktoria BLUESCHKE-NIKOLAEVA, Optimal Macroeconomic Policies under Uncertainty: An Application of Stochastic Control Theory to Slovenia



19:00                    Ceremonial Dinner



Friday, December 4, 2009


8:00 – 9:00       Breakfast


8:30 – 9:00      AMFET Meeting


10.45 – 14:00    Sightseeing Tour

10.45 - 11.00 – Transfer to the salt mine

11.00 - 12.30 –  Godown to the mine and sightseeing

12.30 - 13.30 – Lunch at Bochnia Salt Mine Health Resort

13.30 - 14.00 – Come back to the hotel


 15:00 – 16:00  Invited Session II

                        Chair: Manfred Gilli


Ryszard DOMAN, Applying Dynamic Copulas to Modelling Inter-dependencies in Global Financial Market During Financial Crises



16:00 – 17:00  COMISEF Session 6A: Credit and Interest Rates

                        Chair: Reinhard Neck


Anindya BANERJEE, Victor BYSTROV, Paul MIZEN, The Response of Retail Interest Rates to Forecasts of Market Rates in the Major European Economies


Marianna LYRA, Akwum ONWUNTA, Peter WINKER, Threshold Accepting for Credit Risk Assessment and Validation


16:00 – 17:00  Session 6B: Regime-Switching Models

                        Chair: Małgorzata Doman


Łukasz KWIATKOWSKI, Markov Switching In-Mean Effect. Bayesian Analysis in Stochastic Volatility Framework


Rafał WERON, Joanna JANCZURA, Modelling Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices: A Review of Regime-Switching Models


17:00 – 17:30  Coffee break


17:30 – 18:30  COMISEF Session 7A Optimisation – Algorithms and Applications

                        Chair: Mateusz Pipień


Manfred GILLI, Enrico SCHUMANN, Optimal Enough?


Ivan SAVIN, Peter WINKER, Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection. Application on the Russian Innovative Performance


17:30 – 18:30  AMFET Session 7B Modelling and Forecasting Polish Economy

                        Chair: Robert Kelm


Władysław WELFE, Waldemar FLORCZAK, Slow Down of the Polish Economy and the World Recession. Model Based Simulations


Emilia GOSIŃSKA, Modelling Polish Foreign Trade. Cointegration in the Presence of Structural Breakes


19:00-21.00    Dinner



Saturday, December 5, 2009


8:00 – 9:00       Breakfast


10:00 – 11:30  AMFET Session 8A: Modelling Economies in Transition II

                        Chair: Władysław Welfe


Ján HALUŠKA, Michal OLEXA, Analysis and Estimation of the Euro-Changeover Effect on the Price Development in the SR


Miroslav KLÚČIK, Jana JURIOVÁ, Slovakia: Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicators


11:30 – 12:30  Session 9A: VAR/VEC Models – Methodology

                        Chair: Michał Majsterek


Victor BYSTROV, Francesco BATTAGLIA, Antonietta DI SALVATORE, Structural Break and Eigenvalues of the Spectral Density Matrix


Peter WINKER, Dietmar MARINGER, Model Selection and Rank Estimation in Vector Error Correction Models


13:00-14.00    Lunch