The official language of the conference is English.

Programme history



MACROMODELS 2010


 

 

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

 

from 14:00      Hotel registration

 

18:00 – 19:00 Conference registration

 

19:00 – 21:00  Dinner and Get Together Party

 

 

Thursday, December 2, 2010

 

8:00 – 9:00      Breakfast

 

9:45 – 10:00    Opening of the conference – Władysław Welfe

 

10:00 – 11:00   Invited Session I

                         Chair: Aleksander Welfe

 

Anindya BANERJEE, Markus EBERHARDT, James J. READE, Panel Estimation for Worriers

 

 11:00 – 12:30  Session 1A: Exchange Rate and Inflation Modelling

                        Chair: Anindya Banerjee

 

Piotr KĘBŁOWSKI, Are the New Member States on the Fast Track to the EMU? An Analysis of Exchange Rates Misalignments in Central European Countries

 

Robert KELM, The Polish Zloty / Euro Exchange Rate under Free Float: An Econometric Investigation

 

Michał MAJSTEREK, Aleksander WELFE, Inflationary Loop with Taxation. I(1) and I(2) analysis

 

11:00 – 12:30  Session 1B: Financial Econometrics I

                        Chair: Martin Wagner

 

Katarzyna BIEŃ, Informed and Uninformed Trading in the EUR/PLN Spot Market

 

Wojciech BIEŃKOWSKI, Bogna GAWROŃSKA-NOWAK, Wojciech GRABOWSKI, Financial integration and contagion in Central and Eastern Europe

 

Radosław CHOLEWIŃSKI, Econometric Models and Real-Time Market Abuse Detection

 

12:30 – 13:00  Coffee break

 

13:00 – 14:00  Session 2A: Bayesian Econometrics

                        Chair: Jan Gadomski

 

Łukasz KWIATKOWSKI, Bayesian Analysis of Regime Switching Risk Premium for Polish Stock Market

 

Jacek OSIEWALSKI, Anna PAJOR, Bayesian Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for portfolio (Multi- and Univariate Approaches)

 

13:00 – 14:00  Session 2B: Measuring Economy

                        Chair: Jan Hagemejer

 

Kamil DANIELSKI, The European Commission’s Methodology to Calculate Potential Output and Output Gap

 

Barbara LIBERDA, Paweł STRAWIŃSKI, Ewa ŚWIECZEWSKA, Łucja TOMASZEWICZ, Sport Satelite Account for Poland

 

   

14:00 – 15:00  Lunch

 

 

15:00 – 16:00  Invited Session II

                        Chair: Władysław Welfe

 

Georgios CHORTAREAS, Fiscal Policy Discipline in Monetary Unions

 

 

16:00 – 17:00  Session 3A: Macroeconomic Issues I

                        Chair: Dorota Witkowska

 

Gaetano D’ADAMO, Wage Spillovers across Sectors in Eastern Europe

 

Petre CARAIANI, Comparing Monetary Policy Rules in Romanian Economy: A New Keynesian Approach

 

 

16:00 – 17:00  Session 3B: Mathematical economics and macromodeling

                        Chair: Georgios Chortareas

 

Barbora KALIČINSKÁ, IS-LM Model Based on Special Functions

 

Krzysztof PIECH, The HERMIN Model in Application on Regional Level in Poland – A Case Study

 

 

17:00 – 17:30  Coffee break

 

  

17:30 – 18:30  Session 4A: Optimisation – Algorithms and Applications

                        Chair: Miroslav Klucik

 

Jan GADOMSKI, Zbigniew NAHORSKI, Optimum Emission of GHG and Economic Growth. Regularized Results

 

Anna STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, Peter WINKER, Constructing Optimal Path-Wise Bootstrap Prediction Bands Threshold Accepting

  

17:30 – 18:30  Session 4B: DSGE Models

                        Chair: Robert Kruszewski

 

Michał BRZOZA-BRZEZINA, Marcin KOLASA, Krzysztof MAKARSKI, The Anatomy of Standard DSGE Models with Financial Frictions

 

Andrzej TORÓJ, Rationality of Expectations: Another OCA Criterion? A DSGE Analysis

 

 

19:30                    Ceremonial Dinner

 

 

Friday, December 3, 2010

 

9:00 – 10:00     Breakfast

 

11:00-14:00    Sightseeing Tour

 

14:00 – 15:00  Lunch

 

 

15:00 – 16:00  Invited Session III

                        Chair: Jacek Osiewalski

 

Martin WAGNER, Timothy J. VOGELSANG, IM-OLS Estimation and Fixed-b Inference for Cointegrating Regressions

 

16:00 – 17:00  Session 5A: Finacial Econometrics II

                        Chair: Robert Kelm

 

Krzysztof KOMPA, Dorota WITKOWSKA, Baltic Stock Exchange Indexes: Analysis of Selected Properties in Years 2000-2010

 

Magdalena OSIŃSKA, Michał PIETRZAK, Mirosława ŻUREK, Identification of Behavioural Inclinations in Investing at WSE using SEM Methodology

 

 

16:00 – 17:00  Session 5B: Business Cycle Modelling

                        Chair: Barbora Kalicinska

 

Miroslav KLÚČIK, Slovakia’s Way into the Global Business Cycle

 

Robert KRUSZEWSKI, The Role of Delayed Consumption in a Business Cycle Model with Heterogenous Expectations

 

17:00 – 17:30  Coffee break

 

17:30 – 18:30  Session 6A: CGE Models

                        Chair: Petre Caraiani

 

Timo BAAS, Silvia M. MELZER, Macroeconomic Effects of Remittances and Temporary Migration

 

Michał RUBASZEK, Life-Cycle Determinants of Consumer Credit

 

 

17.00 – 18.30  Session 6B: Understanding Financial Crises

                        Chair: Magdalena Osińska

 

Bogna GAWROŃSKA-NOWAK, Wojciech GRABOWSKI, Analysis of Currency Crisis in Central European Countries Using Markov Regime Switching Model

 

Karolina KONOPCZAK, Krzysztof MARCZEWSKI, Why so Different from other CEES’s – Poland’s Cyclical Divergence from the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis

 

19:00-21.00    Dinner

  

 

Saturday, December 4, 2010

 

8:00 – 9:00       Breakfast

 

10:00 – 11:30  Session 7A: Modelling Economies in Transition – Selected Issues

                        Chair: Michał Majsterek

 

Waldemar FLORCZAK, Władysław WELFE, Total factor productivity and its empirical representation for Poland

 

Ján HALUŠKA, Consumption Function as an Instrument for Flash Estimates of Final Consumption of Households

 

Jana JURIOVÁ, Forecasting Industry in Slovakia Based on BTS Results

 

 10:00 – 11:30  Session 7B: Macroeconomic Issues II

                        Chair: Anna Staszewska-Bystrova

 

Jakub GROWIEC, Anna PAJOR, Dorota PELLE, Artur PRĘDKI, The Shape of Aggregate Production Functions: Evidence from Estimates of the World Technology

 

Jan HAGEMEJER, Tomasz JĘDRZEJOWICZ, Zbigniew ŻÓŁKIEWSKI, Fiscal Tightening in Poland after the Crisis: Scenario Analysis

 

Magdalena ZACHŁOD-JELEC, Is There a Consumption Function for Poland?

 

11:30 – 12:30  Session 8A: Financial Econometrics III

                        Chair: Ján HALUŠKA

 

Joanna GÓRKA, The Sign RCA Models: Comparing Predictive Accuracy of the Selected Risk Measures

 

Blanka ŁĘT, Modeling Volatility of Oil and Gas Futures Contracts Using HAR Model

 

13:00-14.00    Lunch