The official language of the conference is English.

Programme history



Wednesday, November 30, 2011


from 14:00      Hotel registration


18:00 – 19:00  Conference registration


19:30 – 21:30  Dinner and Get Together Party



Thursday, December 1, 2011


8:00 – 9:00      Breakfast


9:45 – 10:00    Opening of the conference – Władysław Welfe


10:00 – 11:00   Invited Session I

                         Chair: Aleksander Welfe


Rafał WERON, The European CO2 Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS): the Good, the Bad and the Interesting


 11:00 – 12:30  Session 1: Macroeconomics

                         Chair: Rafał Weron


Barbora VOLNÁ KALIČINSKÁ, Potential Existence of Devaney, Li-York and Distributional Chaos in two Modifications of Macroeconomic IS-LM Model


Robert KRUSZEWSKI, The Role of Endogenous Government Spending in the Hicksian Model with Investment Floor and Income Ceiling


Michał BURZYŃSKI, The Investors` Risk Aversion and the Log-term Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Framework


12:30 – 13:00  Break


13:00 – 14:00  Session 2: Bayesian Econometrics I

                        Chair: Mateusz Pipień


Łukasz KWIATKOWSKI, Bayesian Regime Switching SV Models in Market Risk Evaluation

Anna PAJOR, A Bayesian Analysis of Exogeneity in Models with Latent Variables

14:00 – 15:00  Lunch


15:00 – 16:00  Session 3: Bayesian Econometrics II

                        Chair: Ryszard Doman


Jacek OSIEWALSKI, Krzysztof OSIEWALSKI, General Hybrid MSV-MGARCH Models of Multivariate Volatility. Bayesian Approach


Łukasz GĄTAREK, Lennart F. HOOGERHEIDE, Koen HOONING, Herman K. VAN DIJK, Censored Posterior and Censored Predictive Likelihood in Left-tail Prediction


16:00 – 17:00  Session 4: Stock Market

                        Chair: Małgorzata Doman


Eliza BUSZKOWSKA, Linear Combinations of Volatility Forecasts for the  WIG20 and Polish Exchange Rates


Barbara BĘDOWSKA-SÓJKA, American versus German Macro Announcements: the Comparison of the Intraday Effects on the German and the French Stock Markets



17:00 – 17:30  Break


17:30 – 19:00  Session 5: Financial Econometrics

                        Chair: Jacek Osiewalski


Magdalena OSIŃSKA, Dettecting risk transfer at financial markets using different risk measures


Łukasz LENART, Mateusz PIPIEŃ, Almost Periodically Correlated Time Series in Business Fluctuations Analysis


Piotr PŁUCIENNIK, The Impact of the World Financial Crisis on the Polish Interbank Market: a Swap Spread Approach



19:30               Ceremonial Dinner



Friday, December 2, 2011



8:00 – 8:45     Breakfast


8.45 – 9.45    Session 6: Economic Growth Modelling

                      Chair: Barbora Volná Kaličinská


    Emilia GOSIŃSKA, Władysław WELFE, Business Investment Functions


  Michał KONOPCZYŃSKI, Investment In Human Capital As The Best Source     Of Economic Growth After The Adoption Of The Euro



10:00-14:00    Sightseeing Tour


14:00 – 15:00  Lunch


15.00 – 15.30  AMFET Meeting


15:30 – 16:30  Invited Session II

                        Chair: Władysław Welfe


Dawn HOLLAND, Modelling the Euro Area Debt Crisis


16:30 – 17:30  Session 7: Applied Econometrics I

                        Chair: Dawn Holland



Dorota CIOŁEK, External Effects of Industrial Clustering in Poland


Jan GADOMSKI, Time-Varying Distributed Lag Models in the Flow Systems


17:30 – 18:00  Break


18:00 – 19:00  Session 8: Financial Crises

                        Chair: Magdalena Osińska


Małgorzata DOMAN, Ryszard DOMAN, Linkages in Global Stock Market During the Recent Crisis: A Comparison of Acute and Creeping Phases


Agata KLIBER, Dynamics of the Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Central Europe



19:30-21.00    Dinner



Saturday, December 3, 2011


8:00 – 9:00      Breakfast


 9:00 – 10:30   Session 9: Bayesian Econometrics III

                        Chair: Marek Gruszczyński


Justyna WRÓBLEWSKA, Bayesian Analysis of Common Cyclical Features in VEC Models


Roman HUPTAS, Bayesian Analysis of the ACD Models for Financial UHF Data: Some Specifications and Empirical Results


Krzysztof OSIEWALSKI, Jacek OSIEWALSKI, Missing Observations in Volatility Contagion Analysis. Bayesian Approach Using the MSV-MGARCH Framework


10:30 – 12:30  Session 10: Applied Econometrics II

                        Chair: Waldemar Florczak


Marta SKRZYPCZYŃSKA, Transition Dynamics and the Business Cycle Phases in Poland


Katarzyna LESZKIEWICZ-KĘDZIOR, Władysław WELFE, Consumption Function for Poland. Is Life-cycle Hypothesis Legitimate?


Andrzej TORÓJ, Excessive Imbalance Procedure in the EU: a Welfare Evaluation


Michał BRZOZA-BRZEZINA, Jacek KOTŁOWSKI, Measuring the Natural Yield Curve


13:00-14.00    Lunch