The official language of the conference is English.

Programme history



MACROMODELS 2014


MACROMODELS 2014

Monday, November 17, 2014

from 16:00     Hotel registration

19:00 – 21:00 Dinner and Get Together Party


Tuesday, November 18, 2014


7:45 – 9:00     Breakfast

9:00 – 9:45     Conference registration

9:45 – 10:00   Opening of the conference – Aleksander Welfe

10:00 – 11:00 Invited Session I

Chair: Aleksander Welfe

Marianne Gogstad, Ali M. Kutan, Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, Do International Institutions Affect Financial Markets?: Evidence from the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

11:00 – 12:30 Session 1: Financial econometrics

Chair: Ricardo C. Lima

Łukasz Gątarek, Søren Johansen, Optimizing the sharpe ratio in the cointegrated VAR

Emilia Gosińska, Aleksander Welfe, Testing for Structural Breaks in Vector Error Correction Models

Marcin Wojtowicz, The determinants of CDS bid-ask spreads

12:30 – 13:00 Coffee Break

13:00 – 14:00 Session 2: Monetary policy modeling

Chair: Taufiq Choudhry

Janusz Brzeszczyński, Jerzy Gajdka, Ali M. Kutan, Does Central Bank Communication Matter in Emerging European Markets? Evidence from Poland

Jocildo F. Bezerra, Ricardo C. Lima and Igor E. M. Silva, A study on bank landing channel in Brazil matching impulse response

14:00 – 15:00 Lunch

15:00 – 16:00 AMFET Session 3: Exchange rate modelling I

Chair: Robert Kelm

Marek A. Dąbrowski, Justyna Wróblewska, Exchange rates and macroeconomic shocks in Central European countries: Evidence from the Bayesian SVAR models with common serial correlation

Piotr Kębłowski, Fixed or float? The panel approach to the real exchange rates of the CEEC's

19:00 Ceremonial Dinner


Wednesday, November 19, 2014


7:45 – 8:30     Breakfast

8:30 – 9:00     AMFET Meeting

10:00 – 11:00 Invited Session II

Chair: Jacek Osiewalski

Manfred Gili, Enrico Schumann, Optimization Cultures

11:00 – 12:30 Session 4: Economic Growth and Business Cycle Modeling

Chair: Jan Gadomski

Jacek Osiewalski, Kamil Makieła, Justyna Wróblewska, Bayesian comparison between GDP models based on VAR and SF specifications

Jan Acedański, Welfare gains from eliminating business cycle in Poland

Marta Skrzypczyńska, How has the last financial crisis changed the business cycle in Poland – spectral analysis conclusions

12:30 – 13:00 Coffee Break

13:00 – 14:00 Session 5: Labour market modeling

Chair: Piotr Kębłowski

Mateusz Pipień, Sylwia Roszkowska, Heterogeneity of Return on Education in Emerging and Developed Countries in Europe – the Empirical Importance of the Systems of Regressions Approach

Karolina Konopczak, Aleksandra Majchrowska, Agnieszka Skierska, Paweł Strawiński, Why are women paid less than men? An investigation into gender wage gap in Poland

14:00 – 15:00 Lunch

15:00 – 16:00 AMFET Session 6: Exchange rate modelling II

Chair: Jan Hagemejer

Wojciech Grabowski, Aleksander Welfe, Exchange rate model with market pressure and herding behaviour. Application to the polish currency market

Katarzyna Maciejowska, Jakub Nowotarski, Rafał Weron, Computing prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging

16:00 – 16:30 Coffee Break

16:30 – 17:30 AMFET Session 7: Inflation modeling

Chair: Magdalena Osińska

Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, The impact of fuel prices on inflation in the Polish economy

Monika Naskręcka, A Non-Tâtonnement Model with Producers’ Stocks and Costs of Storage

19:00 Dinner


Thursday, November 20, 2014


7:45 – 9:00     Breakfast

10:00 – 11:00 Invited Session III

Chair: Manfred Gili

Taufiq Choudhry, Syed Shabi Ul Hassan, Fotios I. Papadimitriou, UK Imports, Third country effect and the Global financial crisis: Evidence from the Asymmetric ARDL Method

11:00 – 12:30 Session 8: Economic Growth and International Trade Modeling

Chair: Łukasz Gątarek

Jan Gadomski, Lech Kruś, Zbigniew Nahorski, The Impact of EU GHG Limiting Policies on Economic Growth of Poland. A Multicriteria Approach

Jan Hagemejer, Mahdi Ghodsi, Up or down the value chain? The comparative analysis of the GVC position of the economies of the new EU member states

Magdalena Osińska, Tadeusz Kufel, Marcin Błażejowski, Paweł Kufel, Economic growth determinants in developed and emerging economies - a threshold model approach

12:30 – 13:30 Lunch