The official language of the conference is English.

Publication history



MACROMODELS 1999


26th Macromodels 1999
Wladyslaw Welfe, Piotr Wdowinski
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 2000, ISBN:83-86840-95-1
Contents
Preface 5
Transition Economies Issues
Wilhelm Krelle, Problems of Transition from a Planned to a Market Economy 9
Gerd Hansen, Were There Alternative Economic Policies After the German Unification? 47
Władysław Welfe, Slowdown in the Late 90’s: External Shocks and Policy Alternatives 64
Macroeconometric Models
Nicholas G. Zonzilos, Structural Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece 81
Miroslav Gavura, Miloslaw Tkáč, Econometric Model NBS (Philosophy, structure of equations, applications) 95
Władysław Welfe, Waldemar Florczak, Aleksander Welfe, The Annual Macromodel of the Polish Economy (Model version W8-98) 128
Daniel Piazolo, Amending the Use of Computable General Equilibrium Models for Transition Countries 189
Disequilibrium Models and Their Use
Aleksander Welfe, Michał Majsterek, Wage and Price Inflation in Poland in the Period of Transition – The Cointegration Analysis 215
Daniel Radowski, Werner Smolny, Peter Winker, Modeling German Unification in a Disequilibrium Framework 229
Michał Greszta, Modelling Polish Aggregate Goods Market in Transition. A Disequilibrium Approach 257
Economic Growth
Carlo D’Adda and Antonello E. Scorcu, Growth and Long Term Capital Accumulation: Seven Major Industrial Countries 279
Michael Brandmeier, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Trade and Factors Productivity on the Eastern European Transforming Countries 300
K. Mc. Morrow, W. Roeger, The Economic Consequences of Ageing Populations: A Comparison of he EU, US and Japan 326
Financial Models and Policy
Władysław Welfe, Growth, Inflation and the Budget Deficit: Simulation Excercises 331
Jacek Osiewalski, Mateusz Pipień, Garch-In-Mean Through Skewed t Conditional Distributions: Bayesian Inference for Exchange Rates 354
Aleksander Welfe, Janusz Brzeszczyński, Direction Quality Measures for ARCH Models: the Case of Warsaw Stock Exchange Stock Prices 370