The official language of the conference is English.

Publications



33th Macromodels 2006
Wladyslaw Welfe, Aleksander Welfe
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 2007, ISBN: 978-83-924305-4-4
Contents
Preface 5
Growth Modelling
Robert Kruszewski, Periodic and Quasi-Periodic Dynamics in Modified Samuelson Model 11
Pawel Kliber, Sensitivity of Optimal Growth Trajectories in a Continuous Setting 23
Adam Krawiec, Economic Growth with Public Capital and Investment Delay 35
Jacek Ktolowski, Money and Prices in The Polish Economy - Seasonal Cointegration Approach 87
Modelling Inflation
Robert Kelm, Michal Majsterek, Relationship Between Wages and Prices in the Polish Economy. An I(2) Approach 45
Anna Pajor, Bayesian Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rate 65
Justyna Wroblewska, Bayesian Analysis of Cointegration: An Application to Price-Wage Mechanism in Polish Economy 89
Piotr Burawski, Jacek Kwiatkowski, The Impact of European Union Integration on Volatility of Polish Agriculture Commodity Prices 103
Financial Markets Modelling
Malgorzata Doman, Modelling the Realized Volatility with Regime Switching Models: Results from Polish Financial Market 123
Piotr Pluciennik, Eliza Bruszkowska, Modelling and Forecasting the Implied Volatility of the WIG20 Index 137
Agata Kliber, Volatility Transmisson Along the Yield Curve in Polish Financial Market 155
Daria Filatowa, Marek Grzywaczewski, Mounir Zili, Portfolio Optimalization Problem of Mertons' Market Model Driven by a Fractional Brownian Motion 181
Ryszard Doman, Modelling Conditional Dependence Between Polish Financial Returns Using Copula-Based Dependence Measures 199
Econometric Methodology
Wojciech Grabowski, Integrated Time Series in Binary Choice Models 215
Anna Staszewska, Learning about the Shape of Impulse Response Functions 235
Jacek Osiewalski, Anna Pajor, Mateusz Pipien, Bayesian Comparison of Bivariate GARCH, SV and Hybrid Models 247



32th Macromodels 2005
Wladyslaw Welfe, Aleksander Welfe
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego, Lodz 2006, ISBN: 978-83-917654-0-1
Contents
Preface 3
Modelling Non Stationery Time Series
Anindya Banarjee, Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, Cointegration in Panels Data with Breaks and Cross Section 9
Robert Kelm, Michal Majsterek, The I(2) Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in Poland in the Transition Period 1995-2005 49
Piotr Klebowski, Small Sample Power of Bartlett Corrected Likehood Ratio Test of Cointegration Rank 73
Jacek Kotlowski, Money and Prices in The Polish Economy - Seasonal Cointegration Approach 87
Anna Pajor, Bayesian VECM-SV Models for the Main Polish Exchange Rates 135
Anna Staszewska, Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Paths 155
Aleksander Welfe, Wojciech Grabowski, Stationary Testing and Error Correcting Model For Censored Time Series 169
Justyna Wroblewska, Bayesian Analysis of Cointegration: an Application to Price Inflation in Poland 183
Bayesian Econometrics
Jacek Osiewalski, Anna Pajor, Mateusy Pipien, Comparing Models and Posterior Inferences in the Case of Bivariate GARCH and SV Structures for Exchange Rates 203
Mateusz Pipien, Building Bayesian Hedging Strategies Under GAERCH Models with Conditional Skewed-t or α-Stable Distribution 229
Modelling Financial Processes
Victor Ajevskis, Nadezha Sinenko, Exchange Rate Dynamical Model with the Terminal Cindition of Joining Currency Area 249
Malgorzata Doman, Modeling Volatility of Irregularly Spaced Financial Data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange 269
Ryszard Doman, Modelling Dependence between Polish Financial Returns Using Dynamic Copula Models 285
Daria W. Filatowa, Marek Grzywaczewski, Some Comments on Stochastic Model Selection for Incomplete Financial Markets Assets Prices Description 299
Henryk Gurgul, Pawel Majdosz, Market Behaviour around Profit-Warning Announcements 313



31th Macromodels 2004
Wladyslaw Welfe, Aleksander Welfe
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego, Lodz 2005, ISSN:0208-6018
Contents
Preface 3
Modelling Macroeconomic Processes
Robert Kelm, Medium Term Detenninants of the Polish Zloty - Euro Exchange Rate Misalignment 1995-2004 7
Adam Krawiec, A Note on Optimized Growth Model with Public Capital 31
Robert Kruszewski, Chaotic Dynamics in a Growth Model with Migration 37
Michal Majsterek, Robert Kelm, An 1(2) Analysis of Inflationary Processes in Poland 55
Blazej Mazur, Long-Run Structural Modelling of Aggregate Demand: An Application of Alternative Functional Forms 75
Aleksander Welfe, Piotr Kebiowski, Long-Run Relationships Between Wages and Prices in the Polish Economy: An Application of SVEqCM 95
Wladyslaw Welfe, Stylised, Empirical Model of Economic Growth 109
Modelling Financial Processes
Malgorzata Doman, Modelling Value at Risk with CAVIAR Models: The Case of Polish Financial Market 129
Ryszard Doman, Modeling Conditional Skewness and Kurtosis of the Polish Financial Returns 145
Jacek Kwiatkowski, Magdalena Osinska, Forecasting STUR Processes. A Comparison to Threshold and GARCH Models 159
Anna Pajor, Bayesian Comparison of Bivariate SV Models for Two Related Time Series 177
Mateusz Pipien, Value-At-Risk Estimates and Capital Requirements for Market Risk Obtained from GARCH Predictive Densities 197



30th Macromodels 2003
Wladyslaw Welfe, Aleksander Welfe
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego, Lodz 2004, ISBN:83-7171-801-2
Contents
Preface 3
Demand and Innovation Systems
Blazej Mazur, Non-Piglog Demand Systems: An Empirical Comparison 7
Marek Szajt, Innovative Activity in European Countries: Space-Time Analysis 21
Financial Models
Ewa Marta Syczewska, Comparison of Exchange Rate Behaviour for Hungary, Latvia and Poland 39
Konstantins Kozlovskis, Vladimirs Jansons, Markowitz's Portfolio Selection Modified by Time- Varying Conditional Parameters 63
Matgorzata Doman, The Joint Dynamics of Returns, Volatility, and Volume on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 73
Henryk Gurgul, Pawt Majdosz, The information Content of Earning Forecasts Announcements: the Case of the Polish Stock Exchange 87
Ryszard Doman, Forecasting the Polish Stock Market Volatility with Hamilton's Markov Switching Models 103
ARCH and GARCH Models
Mateusz Pipien, GARCH Processes with Skewed-t and Stable Conditional Distributions. Dynamic Bayesian Comparison for WIBOR Interest Rates 125
Piotr Fiszeder, Forecasting Volatility with GARCH Models 139
Henryk Gurgul, Pawei Majdosz, Trading Activity and Return Volatility: Evidence from the Polish Stock Market 153
Econometric Methodology
Malgorzata Osinska, Stochastic Unit Roots Processes - Properties and Application 169
Kazimierz Krauze, Testing for Structural Change in a Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for Poland 181
Anna Staszewska, Inference in VAR Modelling: Some Preliminaries 199



29th Macromodels 2002
Wladyslaw Welfe, Aleksander Welfe
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego, Lodz 2003, ISBN:83-7171-801-2
Contents
Preface 3
Macroeconometric Models of the Transition Economies
Władysław Welfe, Waldemar Florczak, Leszek Sabanty, Aleksander Welfe, The W8-2000 Medium-Term Macroeconometric Model of the Polish Economy 11
Emilian Dobrescu, Macromodel Estimations for the 2002 Version of the Romanian „Pre Accession Economic Programme” 35
Issues in the Theory of Growth
Tomasz Tokarski, Long-Run Monetary Policy Rules in the Domar-Solow Type of Economy 59
Adam Krawiec, Marek Szydłowski, Investment Delay in a Growth Cycle Model 81
Labour Econometrics
Sara Andersson, Andreas Blomquist, Claes-Håkan Gustafson, Jan-Olof Lidström, Are Men Worth More? Evidence About Gender Wage Differences from Official Swedish Data 2001 101
Karsten J. Adamski, Götz Uebe, Activity and Pension Profiles from the GSOEP 119
Applied Econometrics Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Christoph Pasternak, The Signals Approach as an Early Warning System for Currency Crises an Application to Transition Economies–with Special Emphasis on Poland 135
Victor Ajevsky, Nadezhda Sinenko, Evija Liepa, VAR Modeling of Latvian Interest Rates 161
Victor Ajevsky, Vladimirs Jansons, Konstantins Kozlovskis, Testing the Expectations Theory for Latvian Money Market 167
Financial Models
Robert Engle, Lorenzo Capiello, Kevin Sheppard, Asymmetric Dynamic Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns 185
Martin T. Bohl, Pierre L. Siklos, The Present Value Model of US Stock Prices Redux: A New Testing Strategy and Some Evidence 187
ARCH and GARCH Models
Janusz Brzeszczyński, Robert Kelm, Short-Term Dependencies between Volatility of Currency, Money and Capital Markets. The Case of Poland 209
Małgorzata Doman, Modeling Volatility of Warsaw Stock Indices with GARCH and SV Models 225
Ryszard Doman, Forecasting the Polish Stock Market Volatility: a Comparison between GARCH and SV Models' Abilities 237
Econometric Methodology
Kazimierz Krauze, Further Extension of the Test Procedures for Cointegration in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Marginal Process 255
Michał Zienkiewicz, Kalman Filtering Approach to Modelling Average Wages in Polish Economy 269
Mariusz Plich, Wojciech Zatoń, DEMS – Software for Estimation, Model Building and Simulation in Excel 287



28th Macromodels 2001
Wladyslaw Welfe
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 2002, ISBN:
Contents
Preface 5
Macroeconometric Models of the Transition Economies
Wladyslaw Welfe, Aleksander Welfe, Waldemar Florczak, Leszek Sabanty, The Structure and Use of the Long-term Econometric Model W8-D of the Polish Economy 9
Olivier Basdevant, Ulo Kaasik, A Macroeconometric Model for Estonia 35
Valery Heyets, Maria Skrypnychenko, Sectoral Macro-models of Ukrainian Economy 55
Modelling Economies Growth
Robert M. Coen and Berd G. Hickman, The productivity Surge and Sustainable Growth (Abstract) 73
Tomasz Tokarski, Economic Growth and Employment Growth in Selected OECD Countries 75
Michal Przybylinski, Iwona Swierczewska, Explaining Technical Progress in the Labour Productivity Equations for IMPEC 99
Wladyslaw Welfe, Waldemar Florczak, Leszek Sabanty, Human Capital and its Endogenization 121
Issues in Macromodelling
Valery Heyets, Peculiarities of the Configuration of Cobweb Model in Transition Economies 155
Andras Simon, Viktor Varpalotai, Precaution, Optimal External Debt and Fully Non-Ricardian Behavior 167
Lawrence R. Klein, Suleyman Ozmucur, The Predictive Power of Survey. Results in Macroeconomic Analysis 181
Modelling Consumption, Unemployment and Wages
Gabor Vads, Income and Wealth Effect on Consumption and the Role of Non-Economic Variables 201
Nina Lapinska-Sobczak, Adam B. Czyzewski, Labour Cost and Unemployment in Poland in 90-ies 225
Grzegorz Kuczynski, Krystyna Strzala, Phillips Curve in Poland. Myth or Fact 239
Wladimir Prisniakov, A New Consideration of the Phillips Curve 253
Fiscal Policy Models
Gottfried Haber, Reinhard Neck, Klaus Weyerstrass, Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policies for Slovenia under Different Exchange Rate Regimes and Targets 269
Jan Bruha, A Green Tax Reform And Unemployment: the Case of the Czech Republic
Modelling Financial Markets
Malgorzata Doman, Volume's and Volatility of Stock Returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 299
Ryszard Doman, Classification of the Complexity of Polish Stock Returns and Exchange Rates 309
Renata Grzeda Latocha, Error Correction Model for 10 Years Government Bonds in Euro Area 319
Magdalena Sokalska, Common Fluctuations in Equity Returns in Central and Eastern Europe 333
Peter Winker, Manfred Gilli, How to Validate Agent Based Models of Financial Markets 357



27th Macromodels 2000
Wladyslaw Welfe
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 2001, ISBN:83-88384-49-X
Contents
Preface 5
Macroeconometric Models
Constantin Ciupagea, The Hermin-Link Model for the Romanian Economy 9
Władysław Welfe, Growth Determinants of Poland’s Economic Potential 54
Innovation and Human Capital Modelling
Agnieszka Strzelecka, Marek Szajt, The Influence of Innovation on the Process of the Polish Economy Development in the Years 1990-1998 83
Waldemar Florczak, Leszek Sabanty, Władysław Welfe, Human Capital Estimates for Poland 96
GARCH Models
Piotr Fiszeder, Jerzy Romański, Modelling Polish Stock Returns with Garch Models 115
Jacek Osiewalski, Mateusz Pipień, Multivariate T-GARCH Models - Bayesian Analysis for Exchange Rates 128



26th Macromodels 1999
Wladyslaw Welfe, Piotr Wdowinski
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 2000, ISBN:83-86840-95-1
Contents
Preface 5
Transition Economies Issues
Wilhelm Krelle, Problems of Transition from a Planned to a Market Economy 9
Gerd Hansen, Were There Alternative Economic Policies After the German Unification? 47
Władysław Welfe, Slowdown in the Late 90’s: External Shocks and Policy Alternatives 64
Macroeconometric Models
Nicholas G. Zonzilos, Structural Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece 81
Miroslav Gavura, Miloslaw Tkáč, Econometric Model NBS (Philosophy, structure of equations, applications) 95
Władysław Welfe, Waldemar Florczak, Aleksander Welfe, The Annual Macromodel of the Polish Economy (Model version W8-98) 128
Daniel Piazolo, Amending the Use of Computable General Equilibrium Models for Transition Countries 189
Disequilibrium Models and Their Use
Aleksander Welfe, Michał Majsterek, Wage and Price Inflation in Poland in the Period of Transition – The Cointegration Analysis 215
Daniel Radowski, Werner Smolny, Peter Winker, Modeling German Unification in a Disequilibrium Framework 229
Michał Greszta, Modelling Polish Aggregate Goods Market in Transition. A Disequilibrium Approach 257
Economic Growth
Carlo D’Adda and Antonello E. Scorcu, Growth and Long Term Capital Accumulation: Seven Major Industrial Countries 279
Michael Brandmeier, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Trade and Factors Productivity on the Eastern European Transforming Countries 300
K. Mc. Morrow, W. Roeger, The Economic Consequences of Ageing Populations: A Comparison of he EU, US and Japan 326
Financial Models and Policy
Władysław Welfe, Growth, Inflation and the Budget Deficit: Simulation Excercises 331
Jacek Osiewalski, Mateusz Pipień, Garch-In-Mean Through Skewed t Conditional Distributions: Bayesian Inference for Exchange Rates 354
Aleksander Welfe, Janusz Brzeszczyński, Direction Quality Measures for ARCH Models: the Case of Warsaw Stock Exchange Stock Prices 370



25th Macromodels 1998
Wladyslaw Welfe
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1998, ISBN:83-86840-75-7
Contents
Volume 2
Input-Otput Analysis and Optimisation
Adam Ćmiel, Henryk Gurgul, On Some Properties of the Straffa-von Neumann Model 5
Jakub Gutenbaum, Michał Inkielman, Multicriterial Decision-Making by Comparison of the Pareto-Optimal Sets for a Reduced Number of Objectives 15
Ewa Drabik, Auctions as Games 27
Labour and Inflation Modelling
Kai Carstensen, Gerd Hansen, Cointegration and Common Trends on the German Labour Market 51
Aleksander Welfe, Michał Majsterek, Modeling Inflation in Poland 87
Foreign Investment and Trade Modelling
Michał Przybyliński, Łucja Tomaszewicz, The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Polish Economy 99
Tiiu Pass, Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade Pattern 115
Models of Financial Flows
Jan B. Gajda, Nina Łapińska-Sobczak, Financial Flows Simulations for the Polish Economy 145
Michal Olexa, Tomaš Klein, Miloslaw Tkáč, Modelling the Relations in the Revenues and Expenditures of the State Budget of the Slovak Republic 163
Economeric Methods
Jacek Osiewalski, Mateusz Pipień, Bayesian Forecasting of Exchange Rates Using Garch Models with Skewed t Conditional Distributions 195
Jacek Osiewalski, Mateusz Pipień, Garch-In-Mean Through Skewed t Conditional Distributions: Bayesian Inference for Exchange Rates 354
Kazimierz Krauze, Cointegration Tests in Models with Regime Shifts 219
Hans Gerhard Strohe, Frank Geppert, A Dynamic Path Model for German Share Prices with Latent Economic Variables 245



24th Macromodels 1997
Jan B. Gajda, Aleksander Welfe
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1998, ISBN:83-88384-49-X
Contents
Macroeconometric Modelling
A. Ćmiel, H. Gurgul, State-Space Form of Dynamic Input-Output Models with Time-Lags 7
A. Simon, Supply, Demand, Output and Trade During Transition in Hungary and Poland 15
J. Sztaudynger, Econometric Identification of Privatisation Effects 29
G. Minassian, The Currency Board in Bulgaria: Hopes and Fears 41
Policy Simulations and Macroeconometric Models
S.G. Hall, Modelling Economic Policy Responses 65
R. Wender, Calibration of Dynamic CEG Models – An Illustration of the Calibration Procedure for a DynamicPperfect Foresight Model of Austria 93
J. Gajda, E. Kuba, On Some Aspects of Applicability of Neural Networks in Forecasting Economic Phenomena 117
Econometric Techniques and Testing
A. Baszczyńska, Cz. Domański, Nonparametries Inference in the Case of Random Censoring 127
Miscellanea
J. Gruber, Economic Effects of Space Energy Technologies (SET) on Individuals and Society 141
H.Gurgul, S. Białas, On Hypothesis About the Second Eigenvalue of the Leontief Matrix 153
E. Drabik, On Certain Examples of N-Person Repeated Games with Economic Application 159



23th Macromodels 1996
Wladyslaw Welfe, Piotr Wdowinski
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1996, ISBN:83-86840-22-6
Contents
Introduction 5
National Economy Models
Shri Prakash, Shalini Singh, Inventory Investment and Generalisation of Mahalanobis Model of Growth 9
Jan Gadomski, Irana Woroniecka, Dynamic Model of the Polish Economy During the Transition Period 23
Adam Ćmiel, Henryk Gurgul, One- Sector Stochastic Growth Model 47
Tiiu Paas, Modeling the Potential Trade Flows Between Estonia and Herr Main Trading Partners 57
Financial Econometrics
Olga Nosova, On Modelling Foreign Investment 77
Econometric and Statistical Methods
Hans G. Strohe, A Dynamic Partial Least Squares Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling 99
Vadim Tichobaev, The Models of the Input-Output and Information Deficit 123
Czesław Domański, Dariusz Parys, The Step-Down Multiple Comparison Procedures. Some Problems Concercing the Power Comparison 131
Czesław Domański, Aleksandra Baszczyńska, Some Remarks on Nonparametric Estimation Using Spectral Methods 137
Tadeusz Kufel, Mariola Piłatowska, The Behaviour of Conformable Model in Finding the True Model. A Simulation Analysis 153
Macroeconometric Modelling and Policy Simulations
Kazimierz Frydel, Degrees of Freedom of the Money Circulation Model as a Sphere of the State Budget 175
Forecasting
Serguei Gerassimenko, Andrei Shustikov, Model of Forecasting Development Forecasting under Conditions of Moderate Stabilisation 189



22th Macromodels 1995

ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1994, ISBN:
Contents
Introduction 5
Models of Economies in Transitions and Their Use
Tiiu Paas, Macroeconometric Modelling of Transforming Economies: the Needs and Possilibities 9
Mikhail Levinson, Simulation Model of Russian Economy as of 1994 23
Janusz Babarowski, Jakub Gutenbaum, Michał Inkielman, Modelling of an Economy in Transition (Some Computer Simulation Results) 29
Carlo d’Adda, Giorgio Poli, Lorena Vincenzi, PRIAMO: The Prometeia International Annual Model 45
Abstracts
Jean P. Paelinck, Microvariables as Aggregates of Space and Time-Discounted Microvariables 103
Jan B. Gajda, Evaluation of Prediction Error by Means of Stochastic Simulation 109
Henryk Gurgul, Adam Ćmiel, Input-Output Models with Stochastic Matrices and Time Lags 131
Czesław Domański, Dariusz Parys, Nonparametric Tests for Dynamic Models 145
Abstracts
Sectoral Models
Kazimierz Frydel, Simulation Model of the Money Circulation in the Domestic Economy 177
Karl Steininger, The Doubled Dividend of Environmental Policy: An Empirical Quantification for Austria 191
Sergey Gerassimenko, Ruslan Motoryn, Modelling of the Labour Market of Specialists in Transition 209
Abstracts
Computational Systems
Eeva-Liisa Kaski, Model Management Software 239
Anatoly Peresetsky, Dmitry Zhidko, Time Series Analysis Package Mesosaur for Windows ver. 1.0 235



21th Macromodels 1994
Wladyslaw Welfe, Robert Kelm
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1994, ISBN:83-903074-1-3
Contents
Introduction 5
Macromodels
Władysław Welfe, Qarterly Macroeconometric Models for the Period of Transition. General Assumptions 9
Peter Winker, Stochastic Simulations of a Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Model for West Germany 31
Geert L de Wet, Estelle Jonkergouw, Renée Koekemoer, An Econometric Monetary Policy Model for Sout Africa 49
Regional and Multiregional Models
A. Khalik Salman, A Forecasting Model of the OPEC Countries 99
Jerzy Jakubczyc, International Comparacite Study of a Country from an Economic, Financial and Political Risk Point of View 139
Methodology
Stephen G. Hall, Modelling Economies in Transition 167
Eugeniusz Gatnar, Qualitative Modeling of Macroeconomic Systems 203
Henryk Gurgul, Stefan Schleicher, Stochastic Techniques in Input-Output Analysis 215
Applied Econometrics
Robert Kelm, Nina Łapińska-Sobczak, Władysław Welfe, Economic Mechanisms of the Polish Economy in Transition Multiplier Analysis Based on WK94 225
Martin Schellhorn, Shri Prakash, Ranita Dutta, Human Resource Allocation and education-Employment Trade-offs 273
Jacek J. Sztaudynger, Productivity Function and Price Understimation 297



20th Macromodels 1993
Wladyslaw Welfe, Wojciech Zaton
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1994, ISBN:83-901461-5-0
Contents
Introduction 5
Sectoral Models I: Inflation, Consumers Demand
Janusz Babarowski, Jakub Gutenbaum, Michał Inkielman, Inflation Modelling at the Macro Level 9
Eelke de Jong, Has the European Monetary System Reduced Expected Price Changes in the French Manufacturing Sector? 29
Niels Kærgård, Demand for Durable Goods in Denmark 1870-1981 59
Sectoral Models II: Employment, Education, Migration
Nico ‘t Hoen, Jaap de Koning, Unobserved Factors Influencing Both program participation and program results: Possible Remedies 75
Inge van der Weijde, Jaap de Koning, Arie Gelderblom, Education as an Input Factor in Production Function 89
Evgeny Krassinets, Elena Tiourioukanova, The Recent Emigration from Russia: Estimations and Scenarios 105
Econometric Methods
Henryk Gurgul, Stefan Schleicher, Traditional Econometric Estimators in the Kalman Filter Form 119
Zbigniew Gontar, Władysław Milo, On Stability of Econometric Models of Financial Markets 149
Cointegration, ARCH AND GARCH Models
Gerhard Thury, Testing for Seasonal Integration and Seasonal Cointegration. The Austrian Consumption Income Relationship 165
Kazimierz Krauze, Exchange Rate Dynamics in Poland: GARCH Model and Cointegration Analysis 181
Magdalena Osińska, Jerzy Romanowski, Testing for ARCH Effects at the Warsaw Stock Exchange 197



19th Macromodels 1992
Jan B. Gajda, Waldemar Florczak
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1993, ISBN:83-901461-8-5
Contents
Introduction 5
National Models
Eskil Heinesen, A Macroeconomic Rationing Model of the Danish Goods and Labour Markets Estimated by Generalized Method of Moments 9
Grażyna Juszczak-Szumacher, Maria M. Kaźmierska, Nina Łapińska-Sobczak, Aleksander Welfe, Władysław Welfe, The Qarterly Model of the Polish Economy. The Revised Version 27
Niels Kaergard, Anne K. Hoj, The Danish Economic Council’s Smec-Model 59
Ivan Šujan, Jan Haluška, Michal Olexa, Judita Orságowá, An Experimental Annual Model of the CSFR Economy with Disaggrregation Foreign Trade 71
Economies in Transition
Gerhard Gehrig, Guiding Economies in Transition by Econometrics 93
Wilhelm Krelle, On the Subsidization of Firms in the Process of Transition from a Planned to a Market Economy 105
Special Models
Ellen Andersen, The Housing Market in Adam 137
Maria M.Kaźmierska, Wojciech Zatoń, Dynamic Expectations in the Quarterly Model of the Polish Economy 143
Aleksander Markowski, Tony Persson, Stabilization Policy and Cost of Capital in Sweden 161
Heinz Glűck, Stefan Schleicher, Macroeconomic Impacts of Co2 Reduction Strategies 175
Methodological Issues
Jerzy Cz. Ossowski, Some Statistical Problems of Estimation of the Log-Linear Model 199
Kazimierz Krauze, Spatial Aggregation and Time-Verying Regression Coefficients 213
Jan B. Gajda, Degree of Interdependency of Econometric Model 239
Czesław Lipiński, Josef Gruber, Tolerance Analysis for Structural Parameters in Linear Multi-equation Econometric Model 251
Computational Systems
Jean L. Brillet, Micro-computer Evolution and Econometric Modelling: A Test Based on Two Packages 269
Manfred Gilli, Giorgio Pauletto, Parallel Computers for Econometric Model Simulation 277
Summaries of the other Papers
Wojciech Charemza, Unit Root Econometrics and Economic Nonlinearities 295
Waldemar Florczak, Michał Majsterek, Aleksander Welfe, An Application of Cointegration Approach in Analysing of Inflation Processes 296
Władysław Milo, Problems of Estimation and Testing 297
Magdalena Osińska, Jerzy Romański, The Warsaw Stock Exange – An Integration Cointegration Analysis 298
Bernard Schips, Econometric Modelling and Data problems. As an Example: The Financial Sector in the Systems of National Accounts 300
Kenneth F. Wallis, Comparing Macroeconometric Models: The Experience of the ESRC Macroeconometric Modelling Bureau 301



18th Macromodels 1991
Wladyslaw Welfe, Waldemar Florczak
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1995, ISBN:83-903074-5-6
Contents
Introduction 5
Macroeconometrics Models
Ivan Sujan, Michal Olexa, Jan Haluška, Judita Orsagova, A Short-Term Forecasting Model of the Czecho-Slovak Economy for the Transition Period 9
Yngve Abrahamsen, Christof Huth, Bernd Schips, A Macroeconomic Model for Switzerland Used as a Training Instrument in Management Courses 41
Yngve Abrahamsen, Christof Huth, Bernd Schips, An Econometric Model of the Swiss Economy for Simulation Purposes 47
Giorgio Bodo, G. Bruno, G. Parigi, S. Siviero, Diagnostic Checking of Large Econometric Models: An Application to the Models of the Bank of Italy 77
Abstracts
Input-Output Models
Henryk Gurgul, Random Generalization of Dynamic Leontief Model with Two-Period Lags 147
Dietmar Edler, Reiner Stäglin, The Influence of Prices on Intermediate Input and Output Pattern 157
Sanadze Sergei, Sanadze Aliev, Automatized Complex of Input-Output Models and Algorithms 173
Małgorzata Kokocińska, Wiesława Przybylska-Kapuścińska, The Application of the Method of Business Survey in Intermediate Economies 183
Abstracts
Econometric Techniques and Application
Kazimierz Krauze, Aggregated Variables and Varying Regression Coefficients 227
Jerzy Romański, Krystyna Strzała, Testing for Integration and Cointegration with Macroeconomic Indicators for Poland 263
Peter Eckstein, Graphical Stability Analysis of Linear Regression Relationships 287
Jitka Zichová, On the Power of Some Tests of Fit for Binomial Distribution 303
Abstracts



17th Macromodels 1990
Wladyslaw Welfe
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1997, ISBN:83-86840-54-4
Contents
Introduction 5
Anton P. Barten, Consumer Allocation Models: Choice of Functional Form 7
Tadeusz W. Bołt, Wiesław Metyk, Jerzy Ossowski, Explanatory Variables Structure and Aggregation in Linear Models 43
Hanna Bury, Roman Kulikowski, Long Term Simulation Model of the Economy 59
Gerhard Gehrig, Some Prospects for Macromodels in the ‘90s 65
Wolfgang Hauschulz, Hysteresis and Cointegration 73
Bohdan Kłos, The Econometric Model of Centrally Planned Economy Poland 1971-1985 109
Kazimierz Krauze, Problem of Specification of Some Non-Linear Disaggregated Models 143
Tadeusz Kufel, Mariola Piłatowska, The White Noise Properties in the Dynamic Conformable Modelling 163
Roman Kulikowski, Access Competition and Disequilibrium in Economic and Political Models 179
Witold Orłowski, The Computable General Equilibrium Model of Poland for Tax Policy Evaluation 201
Magdalena Osińska, Causality Tests for the Economic Time Series Models 211



15th and 16th Macromodels 1988 and 1989
Wladyslaw Welfe, Czeslaw Lipinski, Zbigniew Karwacki
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1995, ISBN:87-7016-909-0
Contents
Part I 5
MACROMODELS ’88. 15th Conference on Problems of Building and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Serock, 6-9 December, 1988)
Introduction
Krzysztof Cichocki, Optimal Control Model of the Polish Economy with Flexibility in Criteria and Constraints 11
Hermann-Josef Hansen, A Two Market Disequilibrium Model for the FRG 25
Igor Nikulnikov, Grigory Shagalov, The CMEA Countries Economies Cooperation Model 35
Eva Kigyossy-Schmidt, Bernd Matthes, Stability of Dynamic Leontief Systems and the Problem of Constructing Disequilibrium Input-Output Models 59
Thomas Weiss, Employment in the FRG – A Single Equation and Macromodel Analysis 65
Johann A. Mueller, Heike Link, On the Inclusion of External Economic Requirements on Macroeconomic Modelling 95
Miloslav Tkac, Stefan Condik, Vladislav Filipek, Vladislaw Balko, A Software System for Macroeconomic Analyses 105
Dalibor Morvansky, Nelim – Program for Analysis of Nonlinear Econometric Models 111
Jerzy Jakubczyc, The Microcomputer System of Generating Test Data with Independently Controllable Features 119
Abstracts
Yngve Abrahamsen, Bernd Schips, Specification Tests and Model Evaluation - Once Again 127
Anna Bartkowiak, Good Model Fit of Stability of Coefficients in the Model Equation, a Dilemma 127
Vladimir Benacek, The Comparison of Czechoslovak and Hungarian Foreign Trade Specialization Patterns 128
Juergen Blazejczak, Simulation of MacroEconomic Perspectives for the FRG with the DIW-LONG-TERM MODEL 129
Maria Borisova, Victoria Blagoeva, Structural Factors Limiting the Economic Growth in the Socialist Countries (Some Experiments with Econometric Models) 130
Marcela Dedouchova, A Simulation Model to Test Economic Efficiency in Strategic Management of Enterprises 130
Youri N. Ivanov, On Representativeness of Aggregate Models of Economy 132
Kazimierz Krauze, Aggregation or Disaggregation? Problem of Building of Econometric Models in the Medium-Level Economic Structure 133
Wilhelm Krelle, Latent Variables and Econometric Models with an Explanation of Long-Term Cycles in Economic Growth 134
Igor Krivobok, Special Regimes in Economic Planning Problems 134
Jiri Krovak, Specific Features of Long-Term Forecasting (Modelling in Long-Term Growth) 136
Sergei Lobanov, Optimal Control in the Multisectoral Macroeconomic Model 136
Alek Markowski, A Small Integrated Model of the Financial and Real Sector of the Swedish Economy 137
Władysław Milo, New Ideas of Results in Biased Estimation 138
Michael Schulz, An Innovation Process in a Dynamic Input-Output Model 139
Emanuel Sip, Jan Zurek, Price Accessibility of Consumer Goods: A Practical Approach 140
Manfred Woelfling, Horst Brandt, Various Ways to Model the Energy System – Problems and Results 140
Papers published elsewhere (Bibliographical notes)
Vladimir Dlouhy, Portes and Winter – Ten Years After 142
Gerd Hansen, Real Factor Prices and the Business Cycle: Some Tests Under Rational Expectations for the FRG 142
Ari Lahti, Matti Viren, Rational Expectations in a Macromodel: Some Comparative Analyses with Finnish Data 142
Ivan Sujan, Dusan Strauch, An Aggregate Disequilibrium Model for Czechoslovakia 142
Aleksander Welfe, Wojciech Zatoń, Solving and Analysing of Econometric Models with the Gauss-Seidel Method 143
Władysław Welfe et. al., The Future Development of the Polish Economy 143
Władysław Welfe, Grażyna Juszczak, Maria Kazmierska, Supply Multiplier Hypotheses – Empirical Evidence for Poland 143
Part II 5
MACROMODELS ’89. 16th Conference on Problems of Building and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Borki, 12-15 December, 1989)
Introduction
Lawrence R. Klein, Mirosław Gronicki, Conversion: The Trade-Off between Military and Civilian Production in the Warsaw Pact Countries 149
Hubert S. Levine, Bryan Roberts, Some Simulations of Medium-Term Soviet Economic Growth 181
Jerzy Romanski, Władysław Welfe, Simulations of Macroeconomic Disequilibria for Poland 197
Władysław Welfe, The Supply Multiplier. Empirical Evidence for Poland 215
Joachim Schnitke, Reiner Staeglin, A Transfer Model to Reconcile Commodity-Based and Institutionally-Based Input-Oputput Results 245
Wacława Starzynska, Supply-Constrained Demand Equations – Some Applications for the Polish Market 261
Jan Jacek Sztaudynger, Mirosław F. Zielinski, The Debt and GDP Structure – the Case of Mexico 273
Anna Barkowiak, Teresa Liśkiewicz, A Dilemma: Good Model Fit or Stability of Coefficients in the Model Equation 281
Abstracts
B. Boehm, Creation of Economic Policy on the Basis of the Macro Econometric Model of Austrian Economy 291
P. Charemza, Multi Dimensional Stochastic Optimization 291
Wieslaw Debski, Price-income Policy on the Basis of the Econometric Model of Income and Expenditure of Population in Poland 292
Jan B. Gajda, The Degree of Interdependence of a Multiequation Model 293
Grażyna Juszczak, Maria M. Kazmierska, Władysław Welfe, Supply Multiplier – New Data for Poland 293
Maria Lubera, The Non-Material Services Sector in a Macro Model 294
Władysław Milo, Negative Effects of the Standard Statistical Operations 294
P. Nick, Some Trends in the Foreign Trade of GDR Detected Using the Mathematical, Statistical Methods 295
I. Nikulnikov, G. Shagalov, Influence of the CMEA Countries Foreign Trade on the Economic Development. Statistical data and Modeling 296
Witold Orłowski, General Equilibrium Model for Poland 296
J.M.Philip, KEOP/SIMPC: Fast Simulation Runs of Large Econometric Models on PCs. 297
Jan J. Sztaudynger, Modeling of the Interest Repayment 297



15th and 16th Macromodels 1988 and 1989
Wladyslaw Welfe, Czeslaw Lipinski, Zbigniew Karwacki
ABSOLWENT, Lodz 1995, ISBN:87-7016-909-0
Contents
Part I 5
MACROMODELS ’88. 15th Conference on Problems of Building and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Serock, 6-9 December, 1988)
Introduction
Krzysztof Cichocki, Optimal Control Model of the Polish Economy with Flexibility in Criteria and Constraints 11
Hermann-Josef Hansen, A Two Market Disequilibrium Model for the FRG 25
Igor Nikulnikov, Grigory Shagalov, The CMEA Countries Economies Cooperation Model 35
Eva Kigyossy-Schmidt, Bernd Matthes, Stability of Dynamic Leontief Systems and the Problem of Constructing Disequilibrium Input-Output Models 59
Thomas Weiss, Employment in the FRG, A Single Equation and Macromodel Analysis 65
Johann A. Mueller, Heike Link, On the Inclusion of External Economic Requirements on Macroeconomic Modelling 95
Miloslav Tkac, Stefan Condik, Vladislav Filipek, Vladislaw Balko, A Software System for Macroeconomic Analyses 105
Dalibor Morvansky, Nelim – Program for Analysis of Nonlinear Econometric Models 111
Jerzy Jakubczyc, The Microcomputer System of Generating Test Data with Independently Controllable Features 119
Abstracts
Yngve Abrahamsen, Bernd Schips, Specification Tests and Model Evaluation - Once Again 127
Anna Bartkowiak, Good Model Fit of Stability of Coefficients in the Model Equation, a Dilemma 127
Vladimir Benacek, The Comparison of Czechoslovak and Hungarian Foreign Trade Specialization Patterns 128
Juergen Blazejczak, Simulation of MacroEconomic Perspectives for the FRG with the DIW Long-Term Model 129
Maria Borisova, Victoria Blagoeva, Structural Factors Limiting the Economic Growth in the Socialist Countries (Some Experiments with Econometric Models) 130
Marcela Dedouchova, A Simulation Model to Test Economic Efficiency in Strategic Management of Enterprises 130
Youri N. Ivanov, On Representativeness of Aggregate Models of Economy 132
Kazimierz Krauze, Aggregation or Disaggregation? Problem of Building of Econometric Models in the Medium-Level Economic Structure 133
Wilhelm Krelle, Latent Variables and Econometric Models with an Explanation of Long-Term Cycles in Economic Growth 134
Igor Krivobok, Special Regimes in Economic Planning Problems 134
Jiri Krovak, Specific Features of Long-Term Forecasting (Modelling in Long-Term Growth) 136
Sergei Lobanov, Optimal Control in the Multisectoral Macroeconomic Model 136
Alek Markowski, A Small Integrated Model of the Financial and Real Sector of the Swedish Economy 137
Władysław Milo, New Ideas of Results in Biased Estimation 138
Michael Schulz, An Innovation Process in a Dynamic Input-Output Model 139
Emanuel Sip, Jan Zurek, Price Accessibility of Consumer Goods: A Practical Approach 140
Manfred Woelfling, Horst Brandt, Various Ways to Model the Energy System – Problems and Results 140
Papers published elsewhere (Bibliographical notes)
Vladimir Dlouhy, Portes and Winter – Ten Years After 142
Gerd Hansen, Real Factor Prices and the Business Cycle: Some Tests Under Rational Expectations for the FRG 142
Ari Lahti, Matti Viren, Rational Expectations in a Macromodel: Some Comparative Analyses with Finnish Data 142
Ivan Sujan, Dusan Strauch, An Aggregate Disequilibrium Model for Czechoslovakia 142
Aleksander Welfe, Wojciech Zatoń, Solving and Analysing of Econometric Models with the Gauss-Seidel Method 143
Władysław Welfe et. al., The Future Development of the Polish Economy 143
Władysław Welfe, Grażyna Juszczak, Maria Kazmierska, Supply Multiplier Hypotheses – Empirical Evidence for Poland 143
Part II 5
MACROMODELS ’89. 16th Conference on Problems of Building and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Borki, 12-15 December, 1989)
Introduction
Lawrence R. Klein, Mirosław Gronicki, Conversion: The Trade-Off between Military and Civilian Production in the Warsaw Pact Countries 149
Hubert S. Levine, Bryan Roberts, Some Simulations of Medium-Term Soviet Economic Growth 181
Jerzy Romanski, Władysław Welfe, Simulations of Macroeconomic Disequilibria for Poland 197
Władysław Welfe, The Supply Multiplier. Empirical Evidence for Poland 215
Joachim Schnitke, Reiner Staeglin, A Transfer Model to Reconcile Commodity-Based and Institutionally-Based Input-Oputput Results 245
Wacława Starzynska, Supply-Constrained Demand Equations – Some Applications for the Polish Market 261
Jan Jacek Sztaudynger, Mirosław F. Zielinski, The Debt and GDP Structure – the Case of Mexico 273
Anna Bartkowiak, Teresa Liśkiewicz, A Dilemma: Good Model Fit or Stability of Coefficients in the Model Equation 281
Abstracts
B. Boehm, Creation of Economic Policy on the Basis of the Macro Econometric Model of Austrian Economy 291
P. Charemza, Multi Dimensional Stochastic Optimization 291
Wieslaw Debski, Price-income Policy on the Basis of the Econometric Model of Income and Expenditure of Population in Poland 292
Jan B. Gajda, The Degree of Interdependence of a Multiequation Model 293
Grażyna Juszczak, Maria M. Kazmierska, Władysław Welfe, Supply Multiplier – New Data for Poland 293
Maria Lubera, The Non-Material Services Sector in a Macro Model 294
Władysław Milo, Negative Effects of the Standard Statistical Operations 294
P. Nick, Some Trends in the Foreign Trade of GDR Detected Using the Mathematical, Statistical Methods 295
I. Nikulnikov, G. Shagalov, Influence of the CMEA Countries Foreign Trade on the Economic Development. Statistical data and Modeling 296
Witold Orłowski, General Equilibrium Model for Poland 296
J.M.Philip, KEOP/SIMPC: Fast Simulation Runs of Large Econometric Models on PCs. 297
Jan J. Sztaudynger, Modeling of the Interest Repayment 297



13th and 14th Macromodels 1986 and 1987
Wladyslaw Welfe, Zbigniew Wasilewski
Wydawnictwo UL, Lodz 1995, ISBN:83-7016-803-5
Contents
Part I 5
MACROMODELS '86. 13th Conference Problems and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Szczyrk-Biala, 3-5 December, 1986)
Introduction
Bernd Schips, The Use of Econometric Models in the Process of Making Decision 9
Zygmunt Zielinski and Tadeusz Kufel, Specification of Dymic Properties of the Econometric Models in the Light of Conformable Model’s Concept 25
Jerzy Romanski, Władysław Welfe, An Alternative Variant of a Minimodel of the Polish Economy Under Desequilibrium 53
Dorota Witkowska, A Note on Specification of an Optimal Control Model of an Economic System for a Centrally Planned Economy 71
Gerhard Thury, Macroeconometric Forecasting in Austria. An Atheist’s Viewpoint 85
Nina Lapinska-Sobczak, Modelling of Financial Sector in the Market Economy and Centrally Planned Economy 99
Antoni Rogucki, Credited Investent Redemption Modelling 113
Dušan Strauch, The Empirical Analysis of Motivation Factors Impact on the Development of Labour Productivity. (An Econometric Approach) 119
Jan Mládek, Shortage – the Barrier of Modeling Consumption in Centrally Planned Economy 133
Maria Lubera and Krystyna Pruska, Disequilibrium Model of the Labour Market in Fuel-Power Industry in Poland 151
Czeslaw Ceglowski and Zenon M. Woźniak, Application of Simulation Methods to Production Planning in an Agricurtural Enterprise 161
Abstracts
Blagoja Shumkosky, M., Ymeri, Jevtich Živojnt, T. Ivanovich, State Space Dual Contrel Disinflation Model of Yuguslav’s Balance of Payments 171
A. Bartłomiej Czyżewski, Wladysław Welfe, Modelling of Structural Change 172
Mieczyslaw Iwanek, Andrzej Sikorski, Level and Structure of Consumption in Poland. Simulation Analyses (1986-1995) 177
P. Pocha, J. Menaker, Practical Realization of Regional Forecasting Models System 173
Pawel Tomczyk, Prospects of East-West Trade Until 1990 174
Pawel Tomczyk, Wladysław Welfe, Impact of Foreign Trade in the Linked Model of the CMEA Countries 175
Part II 5
MACROMODELS ’87, 14th Conference Problems of Building and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Porabka-Kozubnik, 8-11.December, 1987)
Introduction
Gerhard Gehrig, Econometric Models and Input-Output Analysis 181
Reiner Stäglin, Input-Output Models for Policy Analysis: the Structural Reporting System in the Federal Republic of Germany 187
Ari Lahti and Matti Viren, Using a Macromodel to Examine Policy Alternatives: Some Finnish Results 195
Wladysław Welfe, Topics in Macro-Modelling of Industrializing Oil Producting Countries 205
E.M. Levitsky, Statistcal Analysis and Forecasting of the Technical Progress Influence on the Economic Growth 227
Miroslav Toms and Michal Mejstrik, Disequlibrium, Quality of Goods and Planned Equilibrium Prices 235
Abstracts
M.Adamov, The Economic Growth Analysis of the Production on the Base of Macroeconomic Modelling 255
Rumen Dobrinsky, The CMEA Country Models of the Bonn-Iiasa Project: Closed CPE Models in an Open Environment 255
Ulrich Heilemann, Thomas Weiss, On Changes in West Germany Macroeconomic Price Determinants 256
P.Kramer, Development in Real, Wages, Scope for Reducing European Unemployment? An Empirical Medium – Term Analysis Based on the Interlink Model 257
Blagoja Shumosky, Ymeri Maliz, T. Ivanovich, State Space Dual Control Disinflation Model for Yugoslav’s Balance of Payments 257
Ivan Sujan, Milota Sujanova, Model Simulations of the Czechoslovak Economy Development up to the Year 2000 258



13th and 14th Macromodels 1986 and 1987
Wladyslaw Welfe, Zbigniew Wasilewski
Wydawnictwo UL, Lodz 1995, ISBN:83-7016-803-5
Contents
Part I 5
MACROMODELS '86. 13th Conference Problems and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Szczyrk-Biala, 3-5 December, 1986)
Introduction
Bernd Schips, The Use of Econometric Models in the Process of Making Decision 9
Zygmunt Zielinski and Tadeusz Kufel, Specification of Dymic Properties of the Econometric Models in the Light of Conformable Model’s Concept 25
Jerzy Romanski, Władysław Welfe, An Alternative Variant of a Minimodel of the Polish Economy Under Desequilibrium 53
Dorota Witkowska, A Note on Specification of an Optimal Control Model of an Economic System for a Centrally Planned Economy 71
Gerhard Thury, Macroeconometric Forecasting in Austria. An Atheist’s Viewpoint 85
Nina Lapinska-Sobczak, Modelling of Financial Sector in the Market Economy and Centrally Planned Economy 99
Antoni Rogucki, Credited Investent Redemption Modelling 113
Dušan Strauch, The Empirical Analysis of Motivation Factors Impact on the Development of Labour Productivity. (An Econometric Approach) 119
Jan Mládek, Shortage – the Barrier of Modeling Consumption in Centrally Planned Economy 133
Maria Lubera and Krystyna Pruska, Disequilibrium Model of the Labour Market in Fuel-Power Industry in Poland 151
Czeslaw Ceglowski and Zenon M. Woźniak, Application of Simulation Methods to Production Planning in an Agricurtural Enterprise 161
Abstracts
Blagoja Shumkosky, M., Ymeri, Jevtich Živojnt, T. Ivanovich, State Space Dual Contrel Disinflation Model of Yuguslav’s Balance of Payments 171
A. Bartłomiej Czyżewski, Wladysław Welfe, Modelling of Structural Change 172
Mieczyslaw Iwanek, Andrzej Sikorski, Level and Structure of Consumption in Poland. Simulation Analyses (1986-1995) 177
P. Pocha, J. Menaker, Practical Realization of Regional Forecasting Models System 173
Pawel Tomczyk, Prospects of East-West Trade Until 1990 174
Pawel Tomczyk, Wladysław Welfe, Impact of Foreign Trade in the Linked Model of the CMEA Countries 175
Part II 5
MACROMODELS ’87, 14th Conference Problems of Building and Estimation of Large Econometric Models (Porabka-Kozubnik, 8-11.December, 1987)
Introduction
Gerhard Gehrig, Econometric Models and Input-Output Analysis 181
Reiner Stäglin, Input-Output Models for Policy Analysis: the Structural Reporting System in the Federal Republic of Germany 187
Ari Lahti and Matti Viren, Using a Macromodel to Examine Policy Alternatives: Some Finnish Results 195
Wladysław Welfe, Topics in Macro-Modelling of Industrializing Oil Producting Countries 205
E.M. Levitsky, Statistcal Analysis and Forecasting of the Technical Progress Influence on the Economic Growth 227
Miroslav Toms and Michal Mejstrik, Disequlibrium, Quality of Goods and Planned Equilibrium Prices 235
Abstracts
M.Adamov, The Economic Growth Analysis of the Production on the Base of Macroeconomic Modelling 255
Rumen Dobrinsky, The CMEA Country Models of the Bonn-Iiasa Project: Closed CPE Models in an Open Environment 255
Ulrich Heilemann, Thomas Weiss, On Changes in West Germany Macroeconomic Price Determinants 256
P.Kramer, Development in Real, Wages, Scope for Reducing European Unemployment? An Empirical Medium – Term Analysis Based on the Interlink Model 257
Blagoja Shumosky, Ymeri Maliz, T. Ivanovich, State Space Dual Control Disinflation Model for Yugoslav’s Balance of Payments 257
Ivan Sujan, Milota Sujanova, Model Simulations of the Czechoslovak Economy Development up to the Year 2000 258



12th Macromodels 1985
Wladyslaw Welfe, Pawel Tomczyk
OSSOLINEUM, WROCLAW 1991, ISBN:83-04-03427-1
Contents
Introduction 5
Estimation Theory
Ewa Gorska-Haladaj, Estimation of the Finite Distributed Lag Model-Results of Some Monte Carlo Experiments 9
Muhamed G. Habib, A.I. Bargal, Comaparison of Internal Estimation Procedures for an Exponential Mean Under Random Censorship 33
Muhamed G. Habib, A.I. Bargal, Efficiency of Kimball’s Linearized Maximum Likelihood Estimators for the Two-Parameter Weibull’s and Extreme Value Distributions 43
Statistical Tests and Computational Systems
Czeslaw Domanski, Andrzej S. Tomaszewicz, Some Remarks on Power of Linearity Tests 55
Peter Hackl, Comparison of Some Tests for Structural Change 63
Leszek J. Jasinski, The Near-Extreme Multicollinearity Coefficient 71
Miloslav Tkáč, Štefan Condik, Interactive Statistical Computing System IVED 79
Special Models
Wilhelm Krelle, Long-Term Fluctuations of Technical Progress and Growth 93
Christian Lager, The use of Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Comparative Static Equilibrium Modelling 121
Personal Incomes and Expenditures-Models and Estimation
Rabie Z.Amer, Analysis of Consumption Expenditure Pattern in Kuwait 139
Muhamed Y. El-Bassiouni, Rabie Z. Amer, Estimation of Income Inequality Measures in Kuwait 151
Jozef Pociecha, Taxonometric Models of Personal Expenditures 161